NFL Picks

As we all get ready to start this NFL weekend with a trip to Cafe Nine tonight to see two of the best Connecticut bands out there (Quiet Life and Call It Arson), I thought I would try to make my poor showing at prognosticating the baseball playoffs a memory by nailing this weekend's NFL games.

It all gets started Saturday afternoon with the Chiefs at the Colts. I know a lot of people think this is the worst matchup Peyton and company could get because Indy can't stop the run and that's all KC can do. But here's the thing: The Chiefs won't be able to stop the Colts, either. And, oh yeah, Herm Edwards is awful coach who has abused Larry Johnson like a rented mule this season. It says here LJ doesn't have much left, but does gain 140 yards Saturday. At some point, though, KC will fall behind and have to throw the football. The team can't.

PICK: Colts 34-17

Any team can come out of the NFC this season, any team besides maybe the Giants. The awful conference begins its playoffs with Dallas at Seattle Saturday night. I know the Cowboys play better on the road, but Seattle has one of only two true homefield advantages (KC the other) left in football. I think the Hawks exploit the especially porous secondary of Dallas. Definitely take the over on this game, but Seattle wins.

PICK: Seahawks 35-24

One thing people are forgetting about the two New England-Jets games from earlier this season: The first game started with the Pats winning 24-0, then playing prevent defense. The second game was played in the mud, with the Pats without Ty Warren and with Richard Seymour playing out of position and with one hand. NE's strength is its D-line, so these were big problems. Also, keep in mind that NE's D is getting overlooked this year; the team let up the second-least points in the league, only 26 more than the Ravens. The Pats win easier than a lot of folks think.

PICK: Pats 27-13

The play-calling in the Giants game last week is getting way overblown. Of course you run Tiki when nobody can tackle him. The Eagles have kept Tiki under 100 yards in two games this year, that should make the play-calling very different this week. Also, on third and 10, looking to end the game late in the fourth and keep the ball away from the Skins, the Giants called a run. It was stopped, and NY's defense was lucky to stop the Skins from tying the game. That kind of mindset, playing not to lose and hiding Eli Manning, will hurt this team Sunday. The Giants D looked awful last week; it couldn't stop a bad offensive team. The Eagles are playing too good right now.

PICK: Eagles 30-21